The models shown here explore alternatives to market price. Where you see dotted lines, this denotes the model is purely technical, meaning it only uses market price as its inputs. Solid lines carry metrics that come from the blockchain, that`s to say they carry fundamentals of investor, network and user behaviour.
The market price is determined by traders on the exchanges. This price is subject to manipulation and also emotional cycles of mania and fear.
The value of all coins in circulation at the price they last moved, in other words an approximation of what the entire market paid for their coins.
The volume weight average price, in other words an approximation of what the entire market paid for their coins using market price and on-chain volume.
Values the network using its monetary velocity. In essence mapping velocity back to Market Cap via NVT Ratio. NVT Caps has a tendency to compress at accumulation bottoms. This metric is experimental and subject to calibration error, if velocity deviates from historical norms this will throw out the pricing model. This metric uses volume estimates fromCoinmetrics Prounder license.
CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) has historically picked the bottom of the market. When coins pass from old investor to new investor, the transaction carries a USD value and also destroys an amount of HODL time by the previous holder. CVDD is the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as a ratio to the age of the market and divided by 6 million as a calibration factor.
The Realised Cap minus Average Cap. Market Cap has historically touched Delta Cap at market bottoms.
An experimental attempt at capturing Bitcoin`s `fair` valuation by measuring the difference between what was paid (realized price) and what was spent (transferred price). This is the on-chain kindred spirit to Delta Cap.
The average cap multiplied by 35. Historically has matched market tops.
This is the forever moving average of Market Cap. The cumulative sum of daily Market Cap values divided by the age of the market in days.
Tracks the total capital inflows into Bitcoin. Inflow Cap is the cumulative value of all coins at the price they were mined.
The cumulative value of all the fees paid on the network.
Bitcoins PE ratio. Detects when Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.
NVT Ratio optimised to be more responsive, useful as a long-range trading indicator.
A useful signal for local and global market tops and bottoms using volume weighted average price.
A variation of MVRV Ratio using on-chain volume as a key metric to find the market tops and bottoms.
A Bitcoin under/overvaluation indicator based on Realised Cap.
A volume-based variation of MVRV used to determine market tops and bottoms.
A leading indicator on Bitcoin price based on volume throughput through the blockchain (experimental).
Trace Mayers ratio to measure Bitcoin price in relation to its historical movement.
A view into miner capitulation, typically signals times when buying is sensible.
Investment RelatedBitcoin Risk-Adjusted Returns
Compares Bitcoin ROI, adjusted for its risk, to other assets.
A collection of useful valuation metrics on Bitcoin.
A cross sectional view of Bitcoin HODLers over time, shows demand and supply from new and old HODLers.
A visualisation of Bitcoins capitalisation stratified by investor HODL duration.
Bitcoin volatility trend, compares to FOREX, also traded volume.
Compares Bitcoin volatility to other asset classes.
Is Bitcoin trending towards a world reserve currency?
Track the historic inflation annual rate of Bitcoins money supply.
Is Bitcoin trending towards payments or savings/investments?
Volume transmitted by Bitcoins blockchain tracks very closely to its Network Value.
Tracks Bitcoins utility value, security, and valuation over time.
Bitcoins throughput in transactions, payments, and USD value per second.
User-centric metrics tracking network congestion, e.g. payment fees, confirm times.
Price per hash tracks the Bitcoins mining hardware capabilities over time.
Tracks how many outputs are packed into each Bitcoin Transaction.
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