Bitcoin stock to flow model compared to Mayer multiple

This chart is showing Bitcoin stock to flow model price compared to actual close price for a given month. Stock to flow is a value calculated when total number of Bitcoins in circulation is divided by number of Bitcoins generated in a month and then divided by 12. It shows how many years is needed in order to produce all Bitcoins currently in circulation. The higher the number the higher scarcity. If the scarcity is higher then the price goes up. Why is this important? Because every 210.000 blocks there is an event called halving which means that reward for mining Bitcoin is cut by half which means monthly production is also cut by half. That makes stock to flow ratio (scracity) higher so in theory price should go up.

If you need more information about stock to flow, scarcity and halving please read this article:Modeling Bitcoins Value with Scarcity

On the graph below, X axis is showing months and Y USD value. Blue line is showing model price calculated as = exp(-1.84)*SF^3.36. Colored dots are showing actual end of day price while different colors represent number of months until next halving (see color bar on right side).

Update:Stock to flow is now calculated as simple moving average of S/F 365d. It basically means that flow equals to total BTC produced in last 365 days. This is because market needs some time to start responding to halving.

Update 2:Another (purple) line has been added. It represents stock to flow calculated based on a daily flow only. It is possible to switch on/off lines by clicking on legend on the down right corner.

Data on this page is updated every 15 minutes.

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