From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin is performing fairly well in 2019. Features like transaction batching and SegWit have made the asset more competitive lately, putting its speeds closer to other currencies like Bitcoin Cash.
Other notable achievements include Bitcoin reaching an all time high hash rate of 102,848,735 trillions of hashes per second on September 18 2019.
On top of this,according to Weiss Crypto Ratings, Bitcoin quadrupled its value in less than 190 days. This is thanks in part to the announcement of Facebooks Libra cryptocurrency which is helping to legitimize the technology in the eyes of the mainstream.
Additionally, theBakkt Bitcoin Futureswere launched on September 23, more than one year after the initial announcement. However, a sharp decrease in the price followed the next day.
It remains to be seen if Bitcoin will ever bethecryptocurrency that everyone ends up using. But, its likelihood of sticking around for the long-term is higher this year than it ever has been.
In light of these development, we are going to make an attempt to predict the Bitcoin price in the end of September, on December 31, 2019, 2020 and 2024.
For those of you that are interested in looking at a video analysis, click below:
The Bitcoin price looks to be trading inside a descending wedge since reaching a high of $13,764 on June 24.
Additionally, it looks to be on the final wave of its correction since reaching its aforementioned high.
Furthermore, the RSI has created some bullish divergence.
In the short-term, the price is trading inside a descending channel.
While inside the channel, increases have been gradual while decreases have been rapid.
The closest short-term support area is found at $7800.
There are three interesting upward sloping trend-lines visible when looking at the price ofBTCsince 2010.
We have used different colours to identify them and will refer to them as the red, blue and green trend-lines.
The red trend-line was crucial in identifying the $19,687 high on December 2017.
However, due to its extremely steep slope, it is not likely to be touched in the near future. Additionally, it represents the upper limit of possible price increases for the future.
The blue and green trend-lines are currently acting as resistance and support respectively. Therefore, future movement is likely to be contained within the confines of these two trend-lines, at least for the near future.
We now have a rough estimate of where price will be in the beginning of 2020 and 2021.
We have a price around between $8000-$12,000 for the end of 2019. The price is likely to continue decreasing and reach the support line by the end of the year.
However, for the year 2020, the prediction is significantly less accurate. Using the trend-lines, we get a price between $18,000 and $90,000.
In order to amend this, we have outlined curved trend-lines that follow every single low and high.
Doing so, we still get a similar prediction for 2019.
However, for 2020, the range of the possible price is reduced.
We get a price between $13,000 and $70,000. This however, is still a very inaccurate prediction that allows for significant movement between these two areas.
Next, while keeping these values in mind, we will try to find similarities between this move and previous ones, in order to make a more accurate assumption about future prices.
Strong similarities between the downward movement following the $1177.19 high on November 30, 2013 and the one following the $19,764.21 high on December 17, 2017.
Besides the fact that both of these highs occurred at the resistance line, the amount of time it took for the price to reach a low and the magnitude of decrease from high to low were very similar.
The price reached a low of $163.88 on January 14, 2014. This is 410 days after the high and marked a decrease of 87%.
The second time, the price reached a low of $3148.3 on December 15, 2018. This is 363 days after the previous high and marks a decrease of 84%.
Incorporating the trend-lines, we can see that the second low $198 on August 25, 2015 corresponds with the green trend-line.
This low occurred after 222 days. If the price were to act in a similar manner, it would drop to the trend-line at $8000 on May 3, 2020.
Using this movement to find the price in the date in the 2014 movement that corresponds with December 31,2019 , we get a price of $10,600.
Using the same method, we get a price of $21,000 for December 31, 2020.
Additionally, both curved trend-lines will get narrower as time goes on.
So, for the beginning of 2025, we get a price between $180,000 and $380,000. While this is still a very big range, such is necessary when doing a prediction five years from now.
Using technical indicators, we can see a slightly different similarity between the two moves.
The January 13, 2014 and December 15, 2018 lows are the only dates in which the weekly RSI fell below 30.
Additionally, this is the longest period in which the MACD was in negative territory.
However, the price movement following the December 2018 low has not been identical to that after the January 2014 low.
After December 15, 2018 the price reached a high after 193 days, on June 26, 2019. This marked an increase of 340%.
To the contrary, after the January 13, 2014 low, the price took 522 days to increase by 340%, reaching a high on June 18, 2014.
If the price was at the same point on January 13, 2014 and on December 15, 2018, the recovery during the second movement was much faster. More specifically, it was 2.7 times faster (522/193).
Using this ratio to find the price after the January 14, 2015 low which corresponds with the price on the beginning of 2020, we get a price of $120,000 for one BTC in the beginning of 2020.
This does not fit into our projections. Therefore, the possibility that the price movement after Dec 15, 2019 is the same as that after Jan 14, 2015 but occurs at a faster rate is invalidated.
However, besides the time period, there are still similarities between the high on June 18, 2014 and June 26, 2019.
During both movement, the price spend a long period of time trading below its 200-day moving average (MA).
Afterwards, the price broke out above it and reached the aforementioned highs.
Looking closer at the price movement, we can see the similarities between the triangles.
After the breakdown, the price spend a very short period of time below the 200-day MA, before immediately moving above it.
Looking at the duration of the triangle and its height, we can see that the movement in 2019 was 1.84 times longer (120/65) and its movement had a 1.25 time bigger magnitude (36/28).
Using these ratios, finding the price in the previous move that corresponds with the price in the beginning of 2020 is straightforward.
We get a price of $8780 for December 31, 2019.
Also, we find a price of $20,200 for Dec 31, 2020.
The end of September is on Monday, September 30.
Since the price broke down from the triangle, it has not retraced at all. Since it is currently inside a support area, we are expecting some retracement.
However, a further breakdown towards $7600 is possible, even if it looks unlikely at the current time.
Even if the price decreases to the second support area at $7600, it will likely bounce above $8000 afterwards.
Therefore, we believe the price will be between $8000-$8600 on September 30.
For December 31, 2019, we got a different price with each method, $10,600 and $8780 respectively.
However, the price movement should be similar either way.
Both predictions are in agreement for the price on December 31, 2020. We got a price target of $21,000 and $20,200 respectively, a relatively insignificant difference.
The price should decrease slightly in the beginning of 2020, before beginning an upward move during the latter half of the year.
Even though the prediction target is slightly above $20,000, it is possible that BTC does not create an all time high, rather finds resistance in the high $19,000, just slightly below our target and the December 2017 high.
We have a large range for this prediction, due to the fact that it is a long period of time in the future.
The price should fall between $180,000 and $380,000 in December 31, 2024.
While the actual price movement is just a rough outline, it is likely that several market cycles will be completed until then.
Do you think our predictions are accurate? What are your thoughts on the methods used to reach our conclusions? Let us know in the comments below.
Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.
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